Julie and the Oscars

Losing Streaks

2012-02-11T08:30:00.001-08:00

There are campaign ads running for Meryl Streep making the appeal that the actress has not won an Academy Award in 29 years. Oscars are not pieces of fruit, they do not rot or expire. I'm quite certain that both Ms. Streep's statuettes (for Kramer vs. Kramer and Sophie's Choice) are still golden and lovely. If you want to talk about losing streaks, talk about the people who have NEVER won.

This year, for instance, marks Glenn Close's sixth nomination, and she has yet to win. She racked up three consecutive Supporting Actress nods for The World According to Garp, The Big Chill, and The Natural (1982-84), and back-to-back Best Actress nods for Fatal Attraction and Dangerous Liasons (1987-88). Her heartbreaking performance in Albert Nobbs is entirely deserving of a win, but alas, this won't be her year. The film is too low-key, and everyone agrees this moment belongs to Viola Davis (myself included.) But Close's upcoming loss will put her in stellar company: She will join a three-way tie with Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter for the most Oscar losses for an actress (without ever winning.)

Scottish actress Deborah Kerr (1921-2007) scored an impressive six Best Actress nods, for Edward My Son (1949), From Here to Eternity (1953), The King and I (1956), Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison (1957), Separate Tables (1958), and The Sundowners (1960, pictured above left). She could have won the sentimental vote on her final nomination, but that year, the sentimental vote went to Elizabeth Taylor, whose win for Butterfield 8 was widely attributed to her near-death and emergency tracheotomy. Ms. Kerr was voted the 1993 lifetime achievement award, so she did finally get to cradle a golden statuette and give an acceptance speech on the Oscar broadcast. (And who presented her with the award? Glenn Close!)

Brooklyn native Thelma Ritter (1902-1969) is perhaps the patron saint of character actresses. She was nominated in the supporting category six times, for All About Eve (1950), The Mating Season (1951), With a Song in My Heart (1952), Pickup on South Street (1953), Pillow Talk (1959), and Birdman of Alcatraz (1962, pictured above right). Her final loss was to 16-year-old Patty Duke, as Helen Keller in The Miracle Worker.

The all-time record for most acting nominations without winning is held by Peter O'Toole (b. 1932). For 24 years, he was tied with his friend and co-star Richard Burton (1925-1984). They both lost for Becket (1964), and O'Toole lost his bids for Lawrence of Arabia (1962), The Lion in Winter (1968), Goodbye Mr. Chips (1969), The Ruling Class (1972), The Stunt Man (1980), and My Favorite Year (1982), while Burton lost for My Cousin Rachel (1952), The Robe (1953), The Spy Who Came in From the Cold (1965), Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966), Anne of the Thousand Days (1969), and Equus (1977, pictured above right). Then O'Toole was nominated once more, for Venus (2006, pictured above left), and his loss to Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland made him the all-time [non-]champ. But like Deborah Kerr, he was voted a lifetime achievement award to accept on live television and display on his mantle.

Oscar isn't always such a tease. Geraldine Page (1924-1987) was "always a bridesmaid" for Hondo (1953), Summer and Smoke (1961), Sweet Bird of Youth (1962), You're a Big Boy Now (1966), Pete 'n' Tillie (1972), Interiors (1978), and The Pope of Greenwich Village (1984), but finally a bride for The Trip to Bountiful (1985, pictured above left).

Paul Newman (1925-2008) was passed up for Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (1958), The Hustler (1961), Hud (1963), Cool Hand Luke (1967), Absence of Malice (1981), and The Verdict (1982), but finally chosen for The Color of Money (1986, pictured above center). He was nominated twice more, for Nobody's Fool (1994) and Road to Perdition (2002), plus he was voted the 1985 lifetime achievement award, and the 1993 Jean Herscholt humanitarian award.

Al Pacino (b. 1940) had six unsuccessful nods for The Godfather (1972), Serpico (1973), The Godfather Part II (1974), Dog Day Afternoon (1975), ...And Justice for All (1979), and Dick Tracy (1990). For his performances in 1992, he was nominated in the lead and supporting categories (Scent of a Woman and Glengarry Glen Ross, respectively.) The supporting award was presented earlier in the ceremony, and he lost to Gene Hackman in Unforgiven, which tied him with Burton and O'Toole for the all-time record, with seven losses. Later in the ceremony, he won the award for Scent (pictured above right), removing him from the record.

So what does this all mean for Glenn Close? Win or lose, she's in fabulously talented company. And her six nominations still make her among the most honored actors in Academy history. And she also has three Tonys and three Emmys. Oh, and she's a working actress in her chosen profession, which is the most kick-ass thing of all.

African-American* Actresses

2012-02-04T10:12:00.000-08:00

Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer are the front-runners to win the two female acting awards this month. It will be the first time two African-American actresses won for the same film, and they will become only the sixth and seventh African-American actresses to win in Oscar's 84 years. Here is a look at all the actresses of African descent (*two of them are not American) who have been recognized by the Academy, in the lead and supporting categories:

1939: Hattie McDaniel, Gone With the Wind (supporting, winner)
1949: Ethel Waters, Pinky (supporting)
1954: Dorothy Dandridge, Carmen Jones (lead)
1959: Juanita Moore, Imitation of Life (supporting)
1967: Beah Richards, Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (supporting)

1972: Diana Ross, Lady Sings the Blues (lead)
1972: Cicely Tyson, Sounder (lead)
1974: Diahann Carroll, Claudine (lead)
1983: Alfre Woodard, Cross Creek (supporting)

1985: Whoopi Goldberg, The Color Purple (lead)
1985: Margaret Avery, The Color Purple (supporting)
1985: Oprah Winfrey, The Color Purple (supporting)

1990: Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost (supporting, winner)
1993: Angela Bassett, What's Love Got to Do With It? (lead)
1996: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Secrets and Lies (supporting)
2001: Halle Berry, Monster's Ball (lead, winner)
2002: Queen Latifah, Chicago (supporting)

2004: Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda (supporting)
2006: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls (supporting, winner)
2007: Ruby Dee, American Gangster (supporting)
2008: Viola Davis, Doubt (supporting)
2008: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (supporting)

2009: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (lead)
2009: Mo'Nique, Precious (supporting, winner)
2011: Viola Davis, The Help (lead)
2011: Octavia Spencer, The Help (supporting)

It's worth noting that while Hattie McDaniel is famously the first African-American Oscar winner, she did not receive an actual Oscar. The picture above left is one of the most famous images of Ms. McDaniel, but she did not collect one of those statuettes on the table. For the first seven years of the Supporting Actor and Actress categories (1936-1942), winners received plaques with a miniature likeness of the statuette, as seen in the picture above right.

Here's to hoping that the list of Hattie McDaniel, Whoopi Goldberg, Halle Berry, Jennifer Hudson, and Mo'Nique expands to include Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer. But of course the Oscars are only a microcosm of the film industry; here's to more quality roles for African-American actresses, so that some day soon, the list will be too big for a single blog post.

Fellow Actors

2012-01-29T15:15:00.001-08:00

Many actors have been nominated for portraying real people; there is a tiny subset of actors who have been nominated for portraying other Oscar nominated actors:

Robert Downey Jr. as Charlie Chaplin

Downey received a Best Actor nomination for Chaplin (1992), a biopic of the silent film auteur. Chaplin himself was nominated twice as Best Actor, for The Circus (1928) and The Great Dictator (1940.)

Cate Blanchett as Katharine Hepburn

Blanchett won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for The Aviator (2004), the Howard Hughes biopic that portrayed his romance with Katharine Hepburn. Ms. Hepburn holds the all-time record for most acting victories, winning her very first nomination for Morning Glory (1933), her very last nomination for On Golden Pond (1981), plus two consecutive wins for Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (1967) and The Lion in Winter (1968); she also received eight more Best Actress nominations.

Kenneth Branagh as Laurence Olivier

This year's film My Week With Marilyn depicts the shoot for the 1957 film The Prince and the Showgirl. Kenneth Branagh is nominated for portraying the film's director and star, Laurence Olivier. Sir Larry received 10 Oscar nominations for acting in his long career, winning for Hamlet (1948).

Branagh and Olivier share another piece of Oscar trivia; they both received Best Actor nods as Shakespeare's Henry V, in their 1946 and 1989 adaptations.

Best Director: All-Time Champs

2012-01-28T12:26:00.000-08:00

With this year's crop of Oscar nominations, Woody Allen and Martin Scorsese now have the most Best Director nods of any living filmmakers. Here's how they figure into the all-time records:

William Wyler (1902-1981) is the all-time champ, with 12 nominations in this category:
1936: Dodsworth
1939: Wuthering Heights
1940: The Letter
1941: The Little Foxes
1942: Mrs. Miniver (*win)
1946: The Best Years of Our Lives (*win)
1949: The Heiress
1951: Detective Story
1953: Roman Holiday
1956: Friendly Persuasion
1959: Ben-Hur (*win -- pictured above)
1965: The Collector

He also holds the record for directing the most Oscar-nominated performances; an astounding 35 nominations, with 14 going on to win.

Billy Wilder (1906-2002) is in second place, with eight:
1944: Double Indemnity
1945: The Lost Weekend (*win)
1950: Sunset Boulevard
1953: Stalag 17
1954: Sabrina
1957: Witness for the Prosecution
1959: Some Like it Hot
1960: The Aparment (*win -- pictured above)

Woody Allen (b. 1935) is now one of four filmmakers in a tie for third place, with seven nods each:
1977: Annie Hall (*win)
1978: Interiors
1984: Broadway Danny Rose
1986: Hannah and Her Sisters
1989: Crimes and Misdemeanors
1994: Bullets Over Broadway
2011: Midnight in Paris

Woody did not attend a single Oscar ceremony in which he was nominated; his only appearance on the telecast was in 2002 (pictured above), to introduce a montage tribute to films shot in his beloved home city of New York.

David Lean (1908-1991):
1946: Brief Encounter
1947: Great Expectations
1955: Summertime
1957: The Bridge on the River Kwai (*win)
1962: Lawrence of Arabia (*win -- pictured above)
1965: Doctor Zhivago
1984: A Passage to India

Martin Scorsese (b. 1942) also moves up to third place this year:
1980: Raging Bull
1988: The Last Temptation of Christ
1990: Goodfellas
2002: Gangs of New York
2004: The Aviator
2006: The Departed (*win -- pictured above)
2011: Hugo

Fred Zinnemann (1907-1997):
1948: The Search
1952: High Noon
1953: From Here to Eternity (*win -- pictured above)
1959: The Nun's Story
1960: The Sundowners
1966: A Man for All Seasons (*win)
1977: Julia

The other gents on this list are all repeat winners. Will Woody or Marty pick up a second directing trophy this year? (I haven't seen all the nominees yet, but so far, my vote goes to Marty!)

P.S.: I'm looking at the pictures of Wilder, Allen, and Scorsese and wondering: Perhaps the key to cinematic greatness is...nerd glasses?

Nomination Reactions!

2012-01-24T19:45:00.000-08:00

Best Actor: 3/5
Demian Bichir and Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) instead of Leonardo DiCaprio and Michael Fassbender. I haven't seen any of these four performances, so I can only say I'm glad Gary Oldman finally got his first nomination.

Best Actress: 4/5
Rooney Mara instead of Tilda Swinton. I haven't seen either performance, but I'm glad there's at least one first-timer in this race.

Best Supporting Actor: 3/5
Nick Nolte and Max Von Sydow(Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) instead of Albert Brooks and Armie Hammer. I hated Drive with a burning passion, and the role was no indication of Albert's range or talent, but I'm still bummed that he was passed up. With The Artist, plus Von Sydow's performance as a mute, there are three silent performances in the running.

Best Supporting Actress: 5/5
Score!

Best Adapted Screenplay: 4/5
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy instead of The Help. I can't complain, the script for The Help needed some serious work.

Best Original Screenplay: 3/5
Margin Call and A Separation instead of 50/50 and Young Adult. Margin Call?!?! What on earth is Margin Call?!?! I'm especially disappointed for 50/50, which was so wonderfully written.

Best Director: 4/5
Terrence Malick instead of Steven Spielberg. Remember when Malick was last nominated, for The Thin Red Line, and every single article about the Best Director race used the same file photo? Well, that's still the only public photo of Malick, and that same file photo is going to show up on every digital and print article all over again.

Best Picture: 6/6
Plus Moneyball, The Tree of Life, and War Horse. Ugh, this ever-changing Best Picture category pisses me off. As with the last two years, I think it's safe to say that the five also nominated for Best Director are the "real" nominees, and the other four are the "extras."

As for everything else, I was disappointed to see Jason Segal and Mary J. Blige passed up for Best Song, but thrilled for Bret McKenzie's inclusion for "Man or Muppet." I hope he and Jason Segal both perform it on the show!

So there are 21 films sharing the top 44 nominations. Keep track of how many films you've seen (and how much they're weighted, nomination-wise) with this fun-to-color scorecard!

Best Actor

2012-01-21T13:48:00.001-08:00

Sure-Things:

George Clooney, The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Remaining Prediction:

Michael Fassbender, Shame

Alternates:

Ryan Gosling, Drive

Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March

Long-Shots:

Damien Beshir, A Better Life

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50

Fassbender and Gosling acted their hearts out in 2011. Gosling’s comedic turn in Crazy, Stupid, Love isn’t in the running, but his two dramas could cancel each other out. Meanwhile, Fassbender’s star-making turn in Shame is by far the favorite over A Dangerous Method, Jane Eyre, and X-Men: First Class.

Best Actress

2012-01-21T13:45:00.001-08:00

Sure-Things:

Viola Davis, The Help

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Remaining Prediction:

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Alternates:

Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Long-Shots:

Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia

Elizabeth Olson, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Kristin Wiig, Bridesmaids

It’s a tough call: Dragon Tattoo did really well with the Guild Awards, and Mara would be the only first-time nominee in the group, but Close edged her out for the SAG nod.

Best Supporting Actor

2012-01-21T13:42:00.000-08:00

Sure-Things:

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Remaining Predictions:

Albert Brooks, Drive

Armie Hammer, J. Edgar

Alternate:

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Long-Shots:

Ben Kingsley, Hugo

Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method

Patton Oswalt, Young Adult

Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Brooks, Hammer, and Nolte are neck-and-neck. I’m demoting Nolte because I don’t think enough voters have seen his film, and promoting Hammer because with The Social Network and J. Edgar, he is a star on the rise.

Best Supporting Actress

2012-01-21T13:39:00.001-08:00

Sure-Things:

Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Remaining Predictions:

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Alternates:

Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Long-Shots:

Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter

Carey Mulligan, Shame

The critics’ groups are all giving their awards to Jessica Chastain because they can cite all of her many supporting turns in 2011 films. She runs some risk of splitting her own vote, but her Globe and SAG nods for The Help should win out.

Best Adapted Screenplay

2012-01-21T13:36:00.001-08:00

Sure-Things:

The Descendants, Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash

The Help, Tate Taylor

Hugo, John Logan

Moneyball, Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian

Remaining Prediction:

The Ides of March, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon

Alternates:

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Steven Zaillian

War Horse, Richard Curtis, Lee Hall

Long-Shots:

Drive, Hossein Amini

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Eric Roth

That fifth nomination is mighty slippery; my guess is that Academy members will reward Clooney for his work on either side of the camera, they way they did for both Good Night and Good Luck and Syriana in 2005.

Best Original Screenplay

2012-01-21T13:33:00.001-08:00

Sure-Things:

50/50, Will Reiser

The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids, Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig

Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen

Remaining Prediction:

Young Adult, Diablo Cody

Alternates:

A Separation, Asghar Farhadi

Win Win, Thomas McCarthy, Joe Tiboni

Long-Shots:

Beginners, Mike Mills

The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick

Diablo Cody, a winner for Juno, should return to this category just ahead of Thomas McCarthy, whose scripts for The Station Agent and The Visitor were both passed up by the Writers’ Branch. Also, the most acclaimed foreign film of the year is always a possible upset in the screenplay categories.

Best Director

2012-01-21T13:30:00.001-08:00

Sure-Things:

The Artist, Michel Hazanavicious

The Descendants, Alexander Payne

Hugo, Martin Scorsese

Remaining Predictions:

Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen

War Horse, Steven Spielberg

Alternates:

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, David Fincher

The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick

Long-Shots:

Drive, Nicolas Winding Refn

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Stephen Daldry

The Help, Tate Taylor

The Ides of March, George Clooney

Moneyball, Bennett Miller

A Separation, Asghar Farhadi

In a year that will see few first-time nominees, the directing race is especially vintage; four of the top seven contenders are the most exciting new filmmakers of…the 1970’s. Scorsese and Malick thrilled the critics this year and Allen pleasantly surprised them, so I think Spielberg, with his usual crowd-pleasing tear-jerker, is on the shakiest ground.

Best Picture

2012-01-21T13:26:00.000-08:00

Sure-Things:

The Artist

The Descendants

Hugo

Remaining Predictions:

The Help

Midnight in Paris

War Horse

Alternates:

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

Long-Shots:

Drive

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

The Ides of March

The Academy continues to monkey around with this category. After two years of a ridiculous ten Best Picture nominees, they have changed the rules again, this time dictating that the number of nominees will be between five and ten every year, depending on how many films reach a certain percentage of first place votes. This means that my predictions, and maybe one or two of my alternates, could be chosen. It further ruins my comparative statistics keeping, and therefore greatly pisses me off.

The nominations for the 84^th Annual Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 24, 2012, at 5:30 a.m. Pacific Time, by Academy President Tom Sherak, and Academy Award-nominee Jennifer Lawrence.

Pretty Dresses!

2011-02-28T15:28:00.000-08:00

The Best Actress nominees all looked terrific: Annette Bening's Art Deco gown; Jennifer Lawrence in a fabulous cut of flaming red; Nicole Kidman rocked artful structure, metallic detailing, AND killer orange pumps; and Michelle Williams looked elegant (if not especially interesting.) Natalie Portman's gown is my favorite: A delicious shade of purple, a romantic neckline, and soft, textured details. Great maternity gowns are rare, and this dress would top my list in any size.

I enjoyed the Supporting Actress's gowns as well. I love the sapphire sparkle on Amy Adams, and Hailee Steinfeld's ballerina gown is just dreamy. I admire Helena Bonham-Carter, Melissa Leo, and Jacki Weaver for sticking with their funky fashion senses.

Speaking of ballerina gowns, it seems quite a few attendees were inspired by Black Swan. One of Anne Hathaway's many costume changes, and the dresses worn by Virginia Madsen, Sharon Stone, and Hilary Swank were all black and white and feathery. Sharon Stone took the look even further with pure evil hair and makeup.

But it is color on the red carpet that makes me happy! Kudos to Halle Berry's champagne confection and Penelope Cruz's scarlet fireworks. Cate Blanchett's dress was 95% awesome: She's lovely in pale pink, the bubbly details are exquisite, I dig the strange oval in the center of the bodice (perhaps for inserting your own 8x10 photo?) and unconventional sleeves, and I even love the unexpected appearance of yellow detailing at the collarbone...if it had been a pastel shade of yellow to compliment the delicate pink. But bright, nearly chartreuse yellow is just ghastly. Jennifer Hudson's bold tangerine number is almost perfect (save for that harsh cleavage.) Scarlett Johansson wore the same awesome shade as Natalie Portman, and the lace overlay is way-cool, but the second shade of magenta and peek-a-boo black bra are too messy. I'm sure most fashion magazines are ripping Florence Welch's banana-creme ruffles, but I think it's a kick-ass, off-kilter look.

More eye candy in the cool color palette, from director Susanne Bier (Foreign Language Film winner), Dale Dickey (winner of the Independent Spirit Award for her supporting role in Winter's Bone), Mila Kunis, and Marisa Tomei.

Earrings I wish to steal: Annette Bening's emerald cabochon drops, Gwyneth Paltrow's semi-precious rainbow (yeah for peridots, you never see them on the red carpet!), the turquoise and amethysts on Busy Philipps, the amazing ruby tassels on Natalie Portman, Marisa Tomei's citrine sunbursts (with emerald and sapphire), and Reese Witherspoon's gleaming emeralds. (All stone names are guesses!)

Necklaces I wish to steal: the awesome emeralds on Amy Adams and Celine Dion.

Necklace I most definitely do not want to steal: Melissa Leo's spider. Check out what she wore to the Oscars two years ago: At first I thought it was her "lucky necklace" or something, but upon closer inspection of the position of the spiders' legs, they appear to be two different necklaces. Two different thin gold chain Y-necklaces with a slightly different spider dangling off the end. Yeeeeesh.

Nothing but the usual penguin suits from the fellas this year, but here, enjoy some handsomeness anyway! (Handsomeness, and a skeezy orange beard.)

It's a Wonderful Night for Oscar -- Oscar, Oscar -- Who will win?

2011-02-26T20:06:00.000-08:00

Best Actor:

Javier Bardem just won three years ago for No Country for Old Men, he didn’t get a SAG nod (which indicates weak support from the Actors’ Branch of the Academy), and his film didn’t connect with voters.

Jeff Bridges just won last year for Crazy Heart. No one is pushing for him to join the Spencer-Tracy-Tom-Hanks Club.

James Franco is a long-shot possibility, if the Academy wants to reward not just his outstanding performance but his double-duty as the show’s host. Still, he’s a relative newcomer to the A-list; it’s not his turn yet.

Jesse Eisenberg is another long-shot possibility, since the whole evening boils down to The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech. But he is also a relative newcomer to the A-list, and at 27, he would make the youngest Best Actor winner ever. (This category skews much older than Best Actress.)

So let us count the ways Colin Firth is going to win: At 50 years old, the two-time Best Picture veteran (The English Patient, Shakespeare in Love) had the best year of his career, scoring his second consecutive lead actor nomination (after A Single Man), and raking in all the major awards for playing the heart and soul of the Best Picture favorite. Done and done.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Colin Firth’s will be the most richly deserved of The King’s Speech’s looming victories. (Though I haven’t seen Biutiful, and I never will.)

Best Actress:

Nicole Kidman has already won (for The Hours), and hers is her film’s only nomination.

Michelle Williams is also the lone representative of her film, and she didn’t get a SAG nod.

Jennifer Lawrence is too much of an unknown, and while she stars in a Best Picture nominee, it is definitely the least-seen of the ten.

Oh, poor Annette Bening! She has lost for The Grifters, American Beauty, and Being Julia; must she lose again? The Kids Are All Right was released in the summer, and all the buzz said she would finally win, but then Black Swan arrived in the winter and the fickle, elusive buzz suddenly shifted. The “overdue” factor could bring her an upset win, but alas, a second-place finish is more likely.

Natalie Portman scored the Critics’ Choice/Golden Globe/SAG trifecta. Voters will want to give at least one award to Black Swan (one of the “real” Best Picture nominees), and she will be the one to carry the flag. (Even those who have trouble with the disturbing and twisty elements of the film can get behind her emotional performance.) She may be only 29, but she’s a 15-year veteran of the business. This category favors pretty movie stars who are “having their moment” (Sandra Bullock, Kate Winslet, Reese Witherspoon, Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Halle Berry, and Julia Roberts, just to mine the current century), and this is hers.

Prediction: Natalie Portman; Personal Pick: Annette Bening. (Though I wish I had seen Blue Valentine in time for this writing.)

Best Supporting Actor:

John Hawkes is the least-known actor in the least-seen film in this race.

Jeremy Renner, with his second nomination in a row (after The Hurt Locker), may win some day, but not for The Town, which was shut out of all other contests.

Mark Ruffalo should also win some day, but his wry comedic turn can’t knock out the big drama in this race.

Geoffrey Rush could possibly win as part of a King’s Speech sweep, but as a Best Actor winner (for Shine), he hardly needs a Supporting Actor prize, too.

Yes, Christian Bale may have alienated some insiders for his erratic behavior, but as with Sean Penn, his performance is so universally applauded, the Academy will have a hard time voting against him.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Christian Bale.

Best Supporting Actress:

Jacki Weaver is the only actress here guaranteed to lose, as a complete unknown (in this hemisphere) with no SAG nod and no other mentions for her film.

Helena Bonham-Carter might – might – get picked up by the King’s Speech tornado, but though she was a lovely presence in the film, she can’t compete with the meatier, more dramatic work in this contest.

Amy Adams has scored three Oscar nods in six years; with her tough-broad turn in The Fighter contrasting nicely against her child-like characters in Doubt and Junebug, this might be her year. Still, Fighter fans seem to prefer her co-star.

Hailee Steinfeld probably does the MOST acting in this category, because she’s in nearly every scene of her film; she was only put in the supporting race because she’s all of 14 years old. This could be an advantage, or it could be seen as a cheat; it worked for 10-year-old Tatum O’Neal, the “supporting” star of Paper Moon, but not for Abigail Breslin of Little Miss Sunshine. I don’t think the Academy will give the award to a child in her very first film role; it’s not unprecedented but certainly very rare. (Only three minors have won acting Oscars, and all for Supporting Actress: 16-year-old Patty Duke in The Miracle Worker, 11-year-old Anna Paquin in The Piano, and the aforementioned Ms. O’Neal.)

And then there’s Melissa Leo. She’s a solid character actress whose profile has increased in recent years with 21 Grams, Frozen River, and now The Fighter. With the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG awards in her corner, she should be unbeatable. She generated some controversy, however, with campaign ads she bought for herself that some found to be in poor taste. It’s enough to keep Adams and Steinfeld on the edge of their seats, but I think she still has the inside track.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Melissa Leo.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

True Grit is a No; the Coen brothers have four Oscars apiece, and this is far from their most compelling film.

127 Hours gets no love either; Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle won for Slumdog Millionaire two years ago, and they won’t repeat with a film that has so little dialogue.

Winter’s Bone is just too tiny.

Toy Story 3 kept up the tradition of the inevitable Animated Feature winner gunning for a screenplay award, though I don’t think a cartoon has ever won.

And so The Social Network kicks everyone’s ass, with the most impressive dialogue AND story structure. I hope Aaron Sorkin gives a fun speech.

Prediction: The Social Network; Personal Pick: Sorkin will make a fine choice, but I’m partial to Winter’s Bone.

Best Original Screenplay:

Funny how the Academy always nominates Mike Leigh but he never comes close to winning. (He won’t with Another Year, a one-nomination film against four Best Picture nominees.)

Inception was the surprise winner of the Writers’ Guild award; strange considering how none of its competitors relied on explaining the convoluted and ridiculous rules of its alternate reality to an uninitiated character. Nolan’s omission from the Director race proves the Academy isn’t that crazy about the film.

The Fighter makes a respectable nominee in a top Best Picture contender, but the film hasn’t commanded a substantial lead in the race; its one or two acting wins will probably be enough. (Four screenwriters is kind of a crowd, and none of them are well-known.)

The Kids Are All Right is a possibility, if voters don’t want the film to go home empty handed. It’s the sort of low-key Best Picture nominee that has no chance at the top prize but could be embraced for its writing.

Ultimately, this is another victory for the Brits. David Seidler won’t simply win as part of a King’s Speech stampede; the 73-year-old writer was a stutterer himself, and though he longed to tell this inspiring story for most of his life, he respected the Queen Mother’s wishes that he not publish the story in her lifetime (and she did not pass away until 2002, at age 101.) He will surely be rewarded for his patience.

Prediction: The King’s Speech. Personal Pick: The Kids Are All Right

Best Director:

Again, the Coen brothers (sans a DGA nod) will not prevail.

The hipsters, Darren Aronofsky and David O. Russell, may win some day, but this year they are the also-rans.

Here is part one of the big Social Network vs. King’s Speech showdown. The Social Network cleaned up at the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe awards, and looked unstoppable. But then The King’s Speech stole the Producers’ Guild Award, followed by the Directors’ Guild Award, followed by the SAG Award for ensemble cast. No, Ensemble Cast is not an “equivalent” to Best Picture, but for the actors to give their ensemble award to a film that is clearly a two-man show indicates they’re so head-over-heels for the film that they’ve lost all good sense.

The DGA award is a biggie, and a victory for Tom Hooper made him a force to be reckoned with, but he is an unknown compared to the other five guys in the race. Look at Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash, The Pianist vs. Chicago, Traffic vs. Gladiator, and Saving Private Ryan vs. Shakespeare in Love. In all these cases, the former film took Best Director and the latter took Best Picture. I think there’s enough of a divide this year that the top awards will split. Score this round for the computer nerds…

Prediction: David Fincher, The Social Network; Personal Pick: I’m good with Fincher winning, though I prefer The Fighter.

Best Picture:

In this, part two, the royals take the big prize.

Prediction: The King's Speech; Personal Pick: I'd rather see The Social Network win out of the two heavyweights, but my heart belongs to those damn toys.

The King's Speech may be a nice film with tender performances, but a work of cinema it is not. At least if it wins, it will break the streak of a big ol' stinker of a Best Picture winner every five years (Crash, Gladiator, Braveheart).

The Rest of the Races

2011-02-26T18:18:00.001-08:00

Cinematography:

My guess is that Black Swan and Inception will split the trippy vote, paving the way for nine-time nominee Roger Deakins to finally win; this category loves sweeping outdoor vistas, and so this will be the only award for True Grit.

Editing:

The chronology shifts and snappy pace make for an easy win for The Social Network.

Art Direction and Costume Design:

Why, the royal period trappings of The King's Speech, of course!

Score:

The cool choice is Trent Reznor for The Social Network, but the Academy is not being cool this year, so I'm betting on the heart-tugging strings from The King's Speech to give Alexandre Desplat his first win in four nominations.

Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects:

Here is where Inception will shine.

Makeup:

The Wolfman seems to have the most (and the most transformative) makeup, so bet on a whopping seventh Oscar for the maestro Rick Baker.

Song:

The options are pretty lame: You've got Randy Newman and Alan Menkin with the same damn song they've been writing for the last 20 years, and a bland ballad from the critically-panned Country Strong. By process of elimination, the winner is "If I Rise" from 127 Hours, a delicate tune from A.R. Rachman (winner two years ago for "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire) and pop singer Dido.

Animated Feature:

Toy Story 3 will not just win, it might actually get 100% of the vote.

Documentary Feature:

Exit Through the Gift Shop is the conversation piece of this year's telecast, directed by street artist Banksy who keeps his identity secret by only appearing in a mask in public. The Academy has said they will not allow anyone in disguise accept an Oscar (because if five different people in masks come up to accept the award, who do you give it to?) That scenario may scare off as many voters as it may intrigue, so I predict the financial meltdown expose, Inside Job.

Foreign Language Film:

I have no idea, so I looked up what most Oscar experts are predicting, and it's In a Better World from Denmark.

Julie's Own Damn Oscars (or Anti-Oscars) Given By Her, Damnit!

2011-02-26T11:02:00.000-08:00

Films of 2010 that I actually saw:

Animal Kingdom, Another Year, Black Swan, The Fighter, Greenberg, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, Please Give, Rabbit Hole, Shutter Island, The Social Network, Solitary Man, Somewhere, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone

***

Favorite Films:

Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone, The Fighter

Least Favorite Films:

Animal Kingdom, Solitary Man, Inception

Favorite Performances:

Amy Adams, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Ben Stiller, Greenberg
Annette Bening, Julianne Moore, Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Ann Guilbert, Please Give
Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Best Musical Number:

"Teddy Bear", Somewhere

Best Couples:

Tom and Gerri (Jim Broadbent and Ruth Sheen), Another Year
Nic and Jules (Annette Bening and Julianne Moore), The Kids Are All Right

Worst Couples:

Ben (Michael Douglas) and everyone he touches, Solitary Man

Coolest Female Characters:

Mattie Ross, True Grit
Ree Dolly, Winter's Bone

Lamest Female Characters:

Ariadne and Mal, Inception

Lamest Male Characters:

Everyone else in Inception

Julie Awards for Excellence from Female Filmmakers:

1. Debra Granik, Winter's Bone
2. Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
3. Nicole Holofcener, Please Give
4. Sofia Coppola, Somewhere

Julie Award for Most Julie-Like Character:

Bonnie, Toy Story 3

Lucky Characters

2011-02-21T18:55:00.001-08:00

The nomination for Jeff Bridges brings up one of my favorite kinds of Oscar trivia: Characters that have yielded multiple Oscar nominations. This can be for remakes...

Leslie Crosbie	The Letter	1929	Jeanne Eagels
	The Letter	1940	Bette Davis
Vicki Lester	A Star is Born	1937	Janet Gaynor
	A Star is Born	1954	Judy Garland
Norman Maine	A Star is Born	1937	Fredric March
	A Star is Born	1954	James Mason
Henry Higgins	Pygmalion	1938	Leslie Howard
	My Fair Lady	1964	*Rex Harrison
Arthur Chipping	Goodbye Mr. Chips	1939	*Robert Donat
	Goodbye Mr. Chips	1969	Peter O’Toole
Joe Pendleton	Here Comes Mr. Jordan	1941	Robert Montgomery
	Heaven Can Wait	1978	Warren Beatty
Max Corkle	Here Comes Mr. Jordan	1941	James Gleason
	Heaven Can Wait	1978	Jack Warden
Henry V	Henry V	1946	Laurence Olivier
	Henry V	1989	Kenneth Branagh
Cyrano de Bergerac	Cyrano de Bergerac	1950	*Jose Ferrer
	Cyrano de Bergerac	1990	Gerard Depardieu
Rooster Cogburn	True Grit	1969	*John Wayne
	True Grit	2010	Jeff Bridges

...for sequels...

Father O’Malley	Going My Way	1944	*Bing Crosby
	The Bells of St. Mary’s	1945	Bing Crosby
Michael Corleone	The Godfather	1972	Al Pacino
	The Godfather Part II	1974	Al Pacino
Vito Corleone	The Godfather	1972	*Marlon Brando
	The Godfather Part II	1974	*Robert DeNiro
Eddie Felson	The Hustler	1961	Paul Newman
	The Color of Money	1986	*Paul Newman
Elizabeth I	Elizabeth	1998	Cate Blanchett
	Elizabeth: The Golden Age	2007	Cate Blanchett

...for historical figures who appear in multiple dramatizations...

Henry VIII	The Private Life of Henry VIII	1933	*Charles Laughton
	A Man for All Seasons	1966	Robert Shaw
	Anne of the Thousand Days	1969	Richard Burton
Henry II	Becket	1964	Peter O’Toole
	The Lion in Winter	1968	Peter O’Toole
Elizabeth I	Shakespeare in Love	1998	*Judi Dench
	Elizabeth, etc. [see above]	1998	Cate Blanchett
Howard Hughes	Melvin and Howard	1980	Jason Robards
	The Aviator	2004	Leonardo DiCaprio
Richard Nixon	Nixon	1995	Anthony Hopkins
	Frost/Nixon	2008	Frank Langella

...and characters played by different actors within in the same film...

Rose DeWitt-Bukater/Calvert	Titanic	1997	Kate Winslet
			Gloria Stuart
Iris Murdoch	Iris	2001	Judi Dench
			Kate Winslet

There are also a few unofficial ones:

Basil Rathbone received a nod as Tybalt in the 1936 version of Romeo and Juliet; George Chakiris won the Oscar as Bernardo, the Tybalt-inspired character in West Side Story.

Lee Strasberg was nominated for playing Hyman Roth in The Godfather Part II, a fictionalized version of Meyer Lansky, while Ben Kingsley was nominated for playing Lansky in Bugsy.

Gregory Peck was nominated for The Yearling, based on the novel by Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings. The Rawlings biopic Cross Creek portrays the man she based the character on, and Rip Torn was nominated for playing that role.

Mary Badham earned a nomination as "Scout" Finch in To Kill a Mockingbird, a character generally regarded as Harper Lee's fictional counterpart; Catherine Keener was nominated for portraying Ms. Lee in Capote.

***

Did I miss any? Please let me know if I did!

Best Supporting Actress: Co-Stars and Competitors

2011-02-19T10:39:00.000-08:00

The women of The Fighter -- Amy Adams and Melissa Leo -- are competing against each other for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar. Is this unusual? Not at all. The Academy frequently selects two actors from the same film in the same category, and most often in the Supporting Actress race. Since the creation of the "supporting" races in 1936, here are all the pairs (and one trio!) of supporting actress contenders (with an asterisk* indicating a win):

1939	Gone With the Wind	Olivia de Havilland, *Hattie McDaniel
1941	The Little Foxes	Patricia Collinge, Teresa Wright
1942	Mrs. Miniver	May Whitty, *Teresa Wright
1943	The Song of Bernadette	Gladys Cooper, Anne Revere
1945	Mildred Pierce	Eve Arden, Ann Blyth
1947	Gentlemen’s Agreement	*Celeste Holm, Anne Revere
1948	I Remember Mama	Barbara Bel Geddes, Ellen Corby
1949	Come to the Stable	Celeste Holm, Elsa Lanchester
	Pinky	Ethel Barrymore, Ethel Waters
1950	All About Eve	Celeste Holm, Thelma Ritter
1954	The High and the Mighty	Jan Sterling, Claire Trevor
1956	The Bad Seed	Eileen Heckart, Patty McCormack
1957	Peyton Place	Hope Lange, Diane Varsi
1959	Imitation of Life	Susan Kohner, Juanita Moore
1963	Tom Jones	Diane Cilento, Edith Evans, Joyce Redman
1965	Othello	Joyce Redman, Maggie Smith
1970	Airport	*Helen Hayes, Maureen Stapleton
1971	The Last Picture Show	Ellen Burstyn, *Cloris Leachman
1973	Paper Moon	Madeline Kahn, *Tatum O’Neal
1975	Nashville	Ronee Blakley, Lily Tomlin
1979	Kramer vs. Kramer	Jane Alexander, *Meryl Streep
1982	Tootsie	Teri Garr, *Jessica Lange
1985	The Color Purple	Margaret Avery, Oprah Winfrey
1988	Working Girl	Joan Cusack, Sigourney Weaver
1989	Enemies: A Love Story	Anjelica Huston, Lena Olin
1994	Bullets Over Broadway	Jennifer Tilly, *Dianne Wiest
2000	Almost Famous	Kate Hudson, Frances McDormand
2001	Gosford Park	Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith
2002	Chicago	Queen Latifah, *Catherine Zeta-Jones
2006	Babel	Adriana Barraza, Rinko Kikuchi
2008	Doubt	Amy Adams, Viola Davis
2009	Up in the Air	Vera Farmiga, Anna Kendrick
2010	The Fighter	Amy Adams, Melissa Leo

So that's 33 occurrences in 75 years, resulting in 10 wins. What does this trend mean? Is the Academy so unadventurous it throws all its nominations to the same small group of films each year? Or are there so few good roles for women that the few awards-worthy roles are concentrated in the same movies? For comparison, only five films in the Academy's 83 years have yielded two Best Actress nominations:

1950	All About Eve	Anne Baxter, Bette Davis
1959	Suddenly Last Summer	Katharine Hepburn, Elizabeth Taylor
1977	The Turning Point	Anne Bancroft, Shirley MacLaine
1983	Terms of Endearment	*Shirley MacLaine, Debra Winger
1991	Thelma and Louise	Geena Davis, Susan Sarandon

Ironic piece of trivia: All About Eve is the only film to receive as many as four female acting nominations, and yet the only acting trophy it won went to George Sanders.

Does that mean it's harder to win an Oscar if when competing against a co-star -- do they "cancel each other out"? Maybe. You could argue that Tatum O'Neal, Meryl Streep, Jessica Lange, and Catherine Zeta-Jones all won because their roles were large enough to compete in the Best Actress race, and they were unfairly pitted against genuine supporting players in their films. Perhaps actresses with roughly equal screen time (such as Ms. Adams and Ms. Leo) are less likely to win. However, with Melisso Leo's triumphs at the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe, and Screen Actors' Guild awards, she has emerged the clear favorite.

Globes and Guilds

2011-02-01T13:11:00.000-08:00

Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, and Melissa Leo all won the Screen Actors' Guild Awards Sunday night, and they all won the Golden Globe two weeks earlier.

Since the SAG began giving out awards, 37 actors have won both the Globe and Guild award; 32 of them went on to take the Oscar. (Those who won the Oscar are in CAPS*)

	Actor	Actress	Supp. Actor	Supp. Actress
1994	HANKS*		LANDAU*	WIEST*
1995	CAGE*
1996	RUSH*			Bacall
1997	NICHOLSON*	HUNT*		BASINGER*
1998		PALTROW*
1999				JOLIE*
2000		ROBERTS*	DEL TORO*
2001	Crowe
2002		Zellweger
2003		THERON*	ROBBINS*	ZELLWEGER*
2004	FOXX*	SWANK*
2005	HOFFMAN*	WITHERSPOON*		WEISZ*
2006	WHITAKER*	MIRREN*	Murphy	HUDSON*
2007	DAY-LEWIS*	Christie	BARDEM*
2008		WINSLET*	LEDGER*
2009	BRIDGES*	BULLOCK*	WALTZ*	MO’NIQUE*

The unlucky few who took both big precursor awards but lost the Oscar: Lauren Bacall, Russell Crowe, Renee Zellweger, Eddie Murphy, and Julie Christie.

So winning both awards pretty much secures an Oscar victory, but there could still be a shocker, a la Juliette Binoche, Alan Arkin, or Marion Cotillard.

Let's also enjoy the fashion show that is the Globe and Guild awards:

Here are the Best Actress contenders at the Globes...

(Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, Michelle Williams)

...and at the SAGs.

(Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, Hilary Swank)

The Supporting Actress contenders at the Globes...

(Amy Adams, Helena Bonham-Carter, Mila Kunis, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld [not nominated], Jacki Weaver)

...and at the SAGs.

(Amy Adams, Helena Bonham-Carter, Mila Kunis, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld)

Some of my favorite Globe fashions...

(Catherine Zeta-Jones, Jenna Ushkowitz, Angelina Jolie, Olivia Wilde, Claire Danes, Kyra Sedgwick)

...and some of my favorite Guild fashions.

(Angie Harmon, Rosario Dawson, January Jones, Claire Danes, Susan Sarandon, Julia Stiles, Tina Fey.)

Nominee Reactions

2011-01-30T14:18:00.000-08:00

Best Actor: 4/5 (Bardem instead of Gosling)

Bardem is by far is the biggest surprise in the top categories. I can't say if it's deserved, and I never will, because I refuse to see another Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu film (perpetrator of such miserable drags as Babel and 21 Grams.)

Best Actress: 5/5

Everything as expected for this round, but the year-long buzz for Annette Bening is fading as everyone jumps on the Natalie Portman bandwagon. No, not again!

Best Supporting Actor: 4/5 (Hawkes instead of Garfield)

I'm torn, as excited for John Hawkes as I am disappointed for Andrew Garfield.

Best Supporting Actress: 4/5 (Weaver instead of Kunis)

I feel bad for Mila Kunis. I wasn't a fan of her performance -- I thought she was merely as good as anyone could be in that limited role -- but she got over-hyped and let-down big-time. Guess I'll have to see this Animal Kingdom.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 5/5

Sweet! So glad Winter's Bone made the cut. It would have been nice to see Ben Affleck here. After years of speculation that he was much less than half the brains behind his winning Good Will Hunting screenplay, he really proved himself with Gone Baby Gone and The Town.

Best Original Screenplay: 4/5 (Another Year instead of Black Swan)

Damnit, Mike Leigh! He was an unexpected nominee before with and Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake, and Happy-Go-Lucky, but traditionally there have been 10 writing nominees and 5 Best Picture nominees, and he always took one of the "extra" slots; this time he actually knocked out a Best Picture heavyweight. Guess I'll have to see Another Year as well.

Best Director: 4/5 (Coen brothers instead of Nolan)

Ouch. Nolan's is the most surprising omission in the batch. Thrice he has been chosen by the Directors' Guild, thrice I have predicted him, and thrice he has been denied. I guess the Directors' branch of the Academy really hates his guts. (I can't say I'm disappointed; I pretty much hated Inception.)

Best Picture: 9/10 (Winter's Bone instead of The Town)

Yeah for WB! Again, it was on the knife-edge of inclusion alongside The Town, and it won both face-offs.

So the five "real" Best Picture nominees turned out to be Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network, and True Grit (all with Best Director nods), and the "extras" are Inception, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, and Winter's Bone. It's worth noting that the five directors not chosen were all nominated in the writing categories, so no one -- not even Christopher Nolan -- was truly shut out.

My overall score is 39/45. I can dig it. Behold the 83rd annual nominees:

The Oscar ceremony will be held February 27. If you want to see all the nominees before the big night, print the handy scorecard below, and color in each block for every movie you see. It's fun!

Oscar Nomination Predictions

2011-01-23T20:29:00.001-08:00

It was a slow year: There are only 16 films with legitimate chances at the directing, writing, and acting nominations, and my final predictions have only 13 different films making the cut. And yet the Academy still plans on bestowing 10 Best Picture nominations, which will render the distinction nearly superfluous. It was a dumb choice last year and will look especially foolish this year, so here’s to hoping the Academy takes a hint and permanently brings the roster back down to five.

A note on the abbreviations that follow: I have ranked the contenders from most to least-likely to score a nomination, and followed them with the precursor awards they have won. NYFC, LAFC, and NSFC are the New York, Los Angeles, and National Society of Film Critics; NBR is the National Board of Review; and CC is the Critics' Choice Awards. All the critics' awards are the first phase of the Oscar race. GG is the Golden Globes, the silly and gaudy second phase. Most important are the third phase, the Guild awards: SAG is the Screen Actors' Guild, and WGA, DGA, and PGA are the Writers', Directors' and Producers' Guilds of America. The Writers' Guild is tricky because they have stricter nomination rules, and some of this year's top screenplay contenders -- including The King's Speech and Winter's Bone -- were ruled ineligible for their award.

Best Actor

2011-01-23T20:27:00.001-08:00

Colin Firth, The King’s Speech. *NYFC, *LAFC, *CC, *GG, SAG.
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network. *NSFC, *NBR, CC, GG, SAG.
James Franco, 127 Hours. CC, GG, SAG, ISA.
Jeff Bridges, True Grit. CC, SAG.
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine. CC, GG.

Alternates

Robert Duvall, Get Low. CC, SAG.
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter. GG.
Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version. *GG.
Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole. ISA.
Javier Bardem, Biutiful.

Best Actress

2011-01-23T20:25:00.000-08:00

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right. *NYFC, CC, *GG, SAG, ISA.
Natalie Portman, Black Swan. *CC, *GG, SAG, ISA.
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone. CC, GG, SAG, ISA.
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole. CC, GG, SAG, ISA.
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine. CC, GG, ISA.

Alternates

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit. [CC, SAG as Supporting Actress]
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right. GG.
Lesley Manville, Another Year. *NBR.
Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. CC.
Hilary Swank, Conviction. SAG.

Best Supporting Actor

2011-01-23T20:24:00.000-08:00

Christian Bale, The Fighter. *NBR, *CC, *GG, SAG.
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech. *NSFC, CC, GG, SAG.
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right. *NYFC, CC, SAG, ISA.
Jeremy Renner, The Town. CC, GG, SAG.
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network. CC, GG.

Alternates

John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone. SAG, ISA.
Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. GG.
Sam Rockwell, Conviction. CC.
Pete Postlethwaite, The Town.
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network.

Best Supporting Actress

2011-01-23T20:22:00.001-08:00

Melissa Leo, The Fighter. *NYFC, *CC, *GG, SAG.
Amy Adams, The Fighter. CC, GG, SAG.
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech. CC, GG, SAG.
Mila Kunis, Black Swan. CC, GG, SAG.
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit. CC, SAG.

Alternates

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom. *LAFC, *NBR, CC, GG.
Lesley Manville, Another Year. [*NBR as Best Actress]
Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer. *NSFC.
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan.
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole.

Best Adapted Screenplay

2011-01-23T20:20:00.000-08:00

The Social Network: Aaron Sorkin. *LAFC, *NSFC, *NBR, *CC, *GG, WGA.
True Grit: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen. CC, WGA.
Toy Story 3: Michael Arndt. CC.
127 Hours: Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle. CC, GG, WGA.
Winter’s Bone. CC, ISA.

Alternates

The Town: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig, Aaron Stockard. CC, WGA.
I Love You, Phillip Morris: Glenn Ficarra, John Requa. WGA.
Rabbit Hole: David Lindsay-Abaire. ISA.
The Ghost Writer: Robert Harris, Roman Polanski.
Barney’s Version: Michael Konyves.

Best Original Screenplay

2011-01-23T20:06:00.001-08:00

The King’s Speech: David Seidler. *CC, GG.
The Kids Are All Right: Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg. *NYFC, CC, GG, WGA.
The Fighter: Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy. CC, WGA.
Inception: Christopher Nolan. CC, GG, WGA.
Black Swan: Andres Heinz, Mary Heyman, John McLaughlin. CC, WGA.

Alternates:

Another Year: Mike Leigh. CC.
Toy Story 3: Michael Arndt. [see note]
Blue Valentine: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, Cami Delavigne.
Please Give: Nicole Holofcener. WGA, ISA.
Buried: Chris Sparling. *NBR.

Note: Toy Story 3 is a tricky case in the Adapted vs. Original category. The story is completely original, but it uses characters from the first two films. So far it has competed in the adaptation race, but it's possible the Academy could decide to run it here instead.

Best Director

2011-01-23T20:01:00.000-08:00

The Social Network: David Fincher. *NYFC, *LAFC, *NSFC, *NBR, *CC, *GG, DGA.
The King’s Speech: Tom Hooper. CC, GG, DGA.
Black Swan: Darren Aronofsky. CC, GG, DGA, ISA.
The Fighter: David O. Russell. GG, DGA.
Inception: Christopher Nolan. CC, GG, DGA.

Alternates:

True Grit: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen. CC.
127 Hours: Danny Boyle: CC, ISA.
The Kids Are All Right: Lisa Cholodenko. ISA.
Winter’s Bone: Debra Granik. ISA.
The Town: Ben Affleck.

Best Picture

2011-01-23T19:52:00.000-08:00

The "real" ones will be:

The Social Network. *NYFC, *LAFC, *NSFC, *NBR, *CC, *GG, PGA.
The King’s Speech. CC, GG, *PGA.
Black Swan. CC, GG, PGA, ISA.
The Fighter. CC, GG, PGA.
Inception. CC, GG, PGA.

The “extra” ones will be:

The Kids Are All Right. *GG, PGA, ISA.
True Grit. CC, PGA.
Toy Story 3. CC.
127 Hours. CC, PGA, ISA.
The Town. CC, PGA.

Alternates:

11. Winter’s Bone. CC, ISA.
12. Rabbit Hole.
13. Blue Valentine.
14. Another Year.
15. The Ghost Writer.

The nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards will be announced Tuesday, January 25, 2011, at 5:30 a.m. (Pacific Time.) They will be announced by Academy President Tom Sherak, and last year's Best Supporting Actress winner, Mo'Nique.

Pretty Dresses!

2010-03-09T17:39:00.000-08:00

I love love LOVE when an Oscar dress takes a whirl around the color wheel, and Maggie Gyllenhaal, Rachel McAdams, and Sandy Powell all rocked the multi-colored look. Gyllenhaal's was especially bold, McAdams's was like a watercolor painting, and Powell kept proud the tradition of Best Costume Design winners looking exceptionally funky.

Here's what I think happened: Gabourey Sidibe thought, "Omigod, wouldn't it be great if all us Precious gals wore shades of...SAPPHIRE?" And Paula Patton was the only one who didn't check her email. Sidibe's dress is my favorite, with the jeweled leaf work. Mo'Nique looked very elegant, especially with the Billie Holliday flowers in her hair. Sherri Shepherd and Oprah Winfrey were classy in simple navy. Of course Mariah Carey had to bring The Skank, with insufficient fabric on her tits and thighs. (A shame, because her dress was a great color and I love the brooch at the waist.) I've got to hand it to Paula Patton, though: I admire anyone brave enough to wear tangerine, especially when that pregnant!

Blue was quite popular Sunday night. Helen Mirren's periwinkle dress was just dreamy, and Virginia Madsen's gown had some interesting vintage details. (But why was she there this year?) Actress Suzy Amis, wife of James Cameron, was unsurprisingly clad in a Na'vi-esque gown (though it was terribly unflattering.) Elizabeth Banks's ruffled skirt was kind of fun, but Kristen Stewart's dress was just dull.

I love me some purple, but all three of these dresses are majorly awkward. The cut of Molly Ringwald's gown was messy and unflattering, and her severe jewelry and strangely-sculpted bangs only made things worse. Charlize Theron would have been stunning in two-toned lilac, if those roses hadn't snuck up from behind and cupped her breasts. And Zoe Saldana's get-up had about five motifs too many: The crystal bodice set in lavender is beautiful, but the weird slit and sea-urchin ruffles work against the above-the-waist elegance. (Add the color changing effect at the bottom, and you have a full-blown mess.)

Not a whole lot in the red family this year. Sigourney Weaver wore it best, in draped crimson and jewels on her shoulder. Jane Seymour had a fun shade of watermelon. (But why was she there this year?) Penelope Cruz wore a nice shade of wine, though the dress was oddly bulky. And then Vera Farmiga took "bulky" to new heights. I'll never understand why designers wish to drown women in ruffles. Mentally, I'm erasing all the ruffles except the two along the bust line -- now there is a great dress.

Ah, pastels to remind us that cruel winter cannot last forever! Anna Kendrick's blush gown is ever so romantic. Queen Latifah has a new personal best in ice pink and a spiral staircase of jewels around her waist. Demi Moore's peach gown was just right; any bigger and it would have crossed over from playful to messy. Diane Kruger's creamy frock was rudely interrupted by black stripes, especially the poofy collar; the overall effect is reminiscent of a poodle. Jennifer Lopez chose the cheapest looking fabric -- is it packing material? -- and there's way too much of it stapled to her waist. The hairstyle also does her a serious disservice; I believe that is the hastily-pulled-back-into-a-scrunchie look. Sarah Jessica Parker looked positively haggard in a shapeless toga, with way too much metalwork threatening to crush her breastbone.

Metallics were also a favorite this year, as seen on Kathryn Bigelow, Sandra Bullock, Miley Cyrus, Cameron Diaz, Anika Noni Rose, Amanda Seyfried, and Kate Winslet. Bullock's rises above with its intricate leaf work. Cyrus's dress was laughably ill-fitting; I think she had to stay hunched over all night to keep her boobs from falling out of those teensy little cups.

Julianne Moore and Meryl Streep in white.

Aaaaand the old standby, black, on Tina Fey, Faith Hill, Carey Mulligan, CCH Pounder, Barbra Streisand, and Nancy Walls. Faith Hill's ensemble belongs in one of those Old West souvenir photos. Carey Mulligan's gown is the only one to bring some interest to basic black, with silver charms in the shape of miniature silverware sewn to the bodice and skirt.

Here are my favorite jewels: Maggie Gyllenhaal's floral trumpets, Penelope Cruz's cabochon-cut amethyst ring, Kate Winslet's matching (citrines? canary diamonds?), and Gabourey Sidibe's sapphire teardrops.

As for the fellas, they all wore a plain old penguin suit except Robert Downey Jr., who brought some fun to the uniform with turquoise-tinted glasses, matching oversized bowtie, and nerd sneakers. Bravo!

Julie's Predictions for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards

2010-03-06T14:36:00.001-08:00

This year’s winners are awfully easy to predict. Too easy. It makes me think some loopy things will go down Sunday night.

Best Actor

2010-03-06T14:34:00.000-08:00

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

No one is truly out of contention, but we can first eliminate Colin Firth, the lonely nominee from A Single Man. Likewise, Invictus underwhelmed in its nomination total, so recent winner Morgan Freeman in unlikely to repeat. George Clooney, another recent winner, has a slightly better chance by appearing in a Best Picture nominee, but too many people think he was just playing himself. Jeremy Renner also gets a tiny boost from his film’s Best Picture chances, but he’s the least-known nominee, a tough sell for the leading role categories. So it looks like an easy call for Jeff Bridges, finally winning on his fifth nomination, 38 years after his first (for The Last Picture Show). Don’t forget he’s not just a boomer favorite – he has a whole new generation of fans from The Big Lebowski, and his performance pushes all of Oscar’s buttons: He sings, he battles addiction, he loves and loses. He’s golden.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Jeff Bridges, though I really wish I had seen A Single Man in time for this writing (and I never plan on seeing Invictus.)

Best Actress

2010-03-06T14:32:00.001-08:00

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

Definitely not Helen Mirren; she still has that new Oscar-winner smell, and The Last Station didn’t get much love. The young ladies in Best Picture nominees – Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe – are pretty much out; they’ll need more than their first major film role to be minted with Academy Award Winner status.

As expected, this race is all about Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. Meryl was the early front-runner when her film came out in the summer, and most people (me not so much) were absolutely tickled by her warm, joyous performance as Julia Child. Some say she’s “due” to win since her last Oscar (for Sophie’s Choice) was 27 years ago, but come on, Oscars are not fruit, they don’t expire; I’m sure both her statuettes (the other for Kramer vs. Kramer) are still golden and shiny. She’s also the only nominee from her film, which indicates weak Academy-wide support, while The Blind Side managed a Best Picture nomination. This category also tends to favor actresses who are big stars, but not exactly regarded as great actresses, finally giving a knockout performance – see Reese Witherspoon, Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Halle Berry, and Julia Roberts from the past decade alone. Even I must admit that Bullock, who I’ve never been a fan of, elevated the sappy material of her film with the conviction of her performance. Plus she edged out Meryl Streep for the all-important SAG award, so I think that puts her just over the finish line.

Prediction: Sandra Bullock

Personal Pick: What a disappointing category this is. I won’t be totally mad if Bullock wins, I won’t feel like anyone was robbed if Streep takes it, and it would be kind of cool if Sidibe surprises. [Indifferent sigh.] But note that I didn’t catch up to The Last Station.

Best Supporting Actor

2010-03-06T14:30:00.001-08:00

Matt Damon, Invictus

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

As with Morgan Freeman, disappointment for Invictus puts Matt Damon on the bench. (He’s also a former winner, not for acting but for writing Good Will Hunting.) Stanley Tucci is a beloved character actor who oughta win some day, but it won’t be for The Lovely Bones, which received no other nominations. Christopher Plummer might get some lifetime-achievement votes, but again, The Last Station didn’t make much of an impression. (The Academy has been much less inclined in recent years to choose actors simply because of their never-won status – just ask Peter O’Toole, Albert Finney, and Lauren Bacall.) Woody Harrelson might pick up a few votes for his against-type turn, but it’s hard to imagine Christoph Waltz losing. This may be the Austrian actor’s first American film, but he has inspired such a fan base that he will overcome his relative-unknown status, and carry the flag for Inglourious Basterds. He’ll be the third consecutive Supporting Actor winner to play an epically evil character (after Heath Ledger and Javier Bardem.)

Prediction: Christoph Waltz

Personal Pick: I’m fine with Waltz, but Stanley Tucci is the one who burrowed under my skin, so heinous yet unsettlingly ordinary. (But again, I didn’t see Invictus or The Last Station.)

Best Supporting Actress

2010-03-06T14:27:00.001-08:00

Penelope Cruz, Nine

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Mo’Nique, Precious

Penelope Cruz ain’t gonna win two years in a row. Maggie Gyllenhaal is lucky just to be nominated. Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick cancel each other out. Oh, and Mo’Nique gave one of the most harrowing performances ever captured on film. Done and done.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Mo’Nique, even though the inappropriate punctuation and capitalization in her name irritate the crap out of me. (But I didn’t see Nine.)

Best Adapted Screenplay

2010-03-06T14:25:00.001-08:00

District 9, Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell

An Education, Nick Hornby

In the Loop, Simon Blackwell, Armando Ianucci, Ian Martin, and Tony Roche

Precious, Geoffrey Fletcher

Up in the Air, Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

In the Loop received no other nominations, so it’s first on the chopping block. District 9 and An Education may be Best Picture nominees, but they are eclipsed by the “real” Best Picture nominees in this category, Precious and Up in the Air. Their face-off in the Supporting Actress category is an easy win for Precious, which is more of an actors’ showcase, but here Up in the Air will triumph, as the more writerly achievement; this is the film’s best shot at winning, and I don’t think voters will let it get shut out. Jason Reitman, like Jeff Bridges, will out-Oscar his dad.

Prediction and Personal Pick: Up in the Air, though I didn’t see District 9 or In the Loop.

Best Original Screenplay

2010-03-06T14:22:00.001-08:00

The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal

Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino

The Messenger, Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman

A Serious Man, Joel and Ethan Coen

Up, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy, Bob Peterson

The favorite for Animated Feature always gets nominated for screenplay, but it never wins. I don’t see Up breaking that streak. The Messenger is the only competitor here without a Best Picture nod, so that’s quite a setback. The Coen brothers took home three awards apiece for No Country for Old Men and one each for Fargo; it’s definitely someone else’s turn to win.

Of the top eight categories, the closest race is between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds for this award. Basterds was not nominated by the Writers’ Guild because for some odd reason, Quentin Tarantino is not a member. 15 years ago, Pulp Fiction was ineligible for the WGA award for the same reason, which made way for Four Weddings and a Funeral to take that award, but Pulp triumphed at the Oscars. This year, The Hurt Locker won the WGA award without having to compete against the Basterds; will the same scenario play out this year, with Tarantino winning his second writing Oscar? It could happen, but I’ll give Best Picture favorite The Hurt Locker the inside track.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Personal Pick: I loved the Tarantino and Coen films and can’t really separate them, so in the interest of spreading the wealth, I’m pulling for Tarantino.

Best Director

2010-03-06T14:16:00.001-08:00

Avatar, James Cameron

The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow

Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino

Precious, Lee Daniels

Up in the Air, Jason Reitman

Least likely is Up in the Air, a modest offering in a bold category. Precious and Inglourious Basterds just can’t compete with the showdown between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Some film journalists have tried to paint this race as a microcosm of the American culture wars, with the independent critics’ darling as the “elitist” choice and the 3D popcorn flick as the “populist” choice. I don’t buy it. You could just as easily argue that The Hurt Locker shines a light on the bravery of our troops, while Avatar trades in ham-fisted liberalism. Without assigning either film to an ideological camp, the bottom line is that The Hurt Locker is respected across the board, while Avatar is divisive; some find it magical and other-worldly, some find it simplistic and cheesy. The Directors’ Guild Award is the strongest indicator of who will win, and that gong went to Kathryn Bigelow, so we are getting our first-ever female winner for Best Director. Sweetness!

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Personal Pick: I’m quite torn. As excited as I am for Ms. Bigelow, The Hurt Locker left me cold. I think her directing was top-notch, I just didn’t care for the material for which it was in service. Meanwhile, Tarantino’s direction was also top-notch AND I really dug the resulting film.

Best Picture

2010-03-06T14:13:00.000-08:00

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

A Serious Man

Up in the Air

It’s all too obvious which five are the “extra” nominees; they’re out. Of the “real” nominees, Up in the Air and Precious are the least likely. Inglourious Basterds looms as a possible upset. Its distributor, Harvey Weinstein, has been talking smack that it’s going to sneak up from behind and win, but remember that’s what he was saying last year about The Reader taking over Slumdog Millionaire. (Yeah, right.)

Once again Avatar and The Hurt Locker face off, and here is why Avatar is going down. First of all, it isn’t nominated for writing OR acting. In the 81 years of Best Picture winners, 64 of them were nominated in the top three disciplines (directing, writing, and acting), 15 were nominated in two of the three disciplines, and just two films won Best Picture without any other major nomination (Wings in 1928 and Grand Hotel in 1932, both during the first five years of the Oscars, when the rules were changing every year and the results were truly odd winners that don’t really count as precedent for contemporary Oscar races.) This isn’t just arbitrary statistics-keeping (like, say, the number of Best Picture winners that begin with ‘A’ versus ‘H’), this indicates how much support a film has throughout the branches of the Academy. Avatar didn’t impress the Writers’ OR Actors’ branches, but The Hurt Locker did. Which leads to the second reason Avatar will lose: It has been bested by The Hurt Locker at all the major guild awards (and all Academy members are also members of the guilds, so there is substantial voter overlap.) Hurt was nominated for Actor and Ensemble cast at the SAG awards, while Avatar didn’t get a single mention. Hurt beat Avatar for the Writers’, Directors’, AND Producers’ Guild Awards. The PGA victory is the most impressive, because that group tends to favor box office hits over critics’ darlings more often than the WGA and DGA. So Cameron and company will have to dry their eyes with their billions of dollars while the Little Film That Could wins big.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Personal Pick: I definitely prefer Bigelow’s film to Cameron’s, but of the nine nominees I saw, I was much more taken with An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, and Up in the Air.)

The Rest of the Races

2010-03-06T14:09:00.000-08:00

I don’t specialize in these races. Here are my semi-informed guesses.

Cinematography:

The purdy landscapes and new 3D camera technology should do the trick for Avatar over The Hurt Locker…

Editing:

…but here The Hurt Locker bests its primary competitor for its precision-cut suspense.

Art Direction:

It’s hard to say where the actual art direction ends and the digital art direction begins, but Avatar was, if nothing else, the eye candy of the year.

Costume Design:

Always go with the oldest, froufiest gowns – that makes The Young Victoria the victor.

Makeup:

Always go with the most transformative makeup – in this case, the alien people of Star Trek.

Score:

The best scene in Up had no dialogue or sound effects, just music, and that jubilant music soared throughout the film.

Song:

Another easy win for Crazy Heart, in the form of “The Weary Kind” by soundtrack maestro T-Bone Burnett (of O Brother, Where Art Thou) and country singer Ryan Bingham (who, coincidentally, has the same name as Clooney’s character in Up in the Air.)

Sound Mixing:

This one always goes to the biggest action/fantasy blockbuster, which is, um, Avatar.

Sound Editing:

Ditto for Avatar.

Visual Effects:

Ditto for Avatar.

Animated Feature:

As much as I would love to see Fantastic Mr. Fox pull an upset, it’s an inevitable victory for Best Picture nominee Up.

Foreign Language Film:

The White Ribbon is the front-runner, but the front-runner often gets shafted in this loopy category.

Documentary Feature: All the buzz is with The Cove.

Julie's Own Damn Oscars (or anti-Oscars), Given By Her, Damnit!

2010-03-06T13:47:00.000-08:00

Films of 2009 I actually saw:

Adventureland, Avatar, Away We Go, The Blind Side, Coraline, Crazy Heart, An Education, Fantastic Mr. Fox, 500 Days of Summer, The Hangover, The Hurt Locker, I Love You Man, Inglourious Basterds, Julie and Julia, The Lovely Bones, The Messenger, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Films (alphabetical):

Adventureland, Away We Go, An Education, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Where the Wild Things Are

Worst Films (alphabetical):

Avatar, The Blind Side, The Hangover, Julie and Julia

Best Performances:

Bill Hader and Kristin Wiig, Adventureland

The cast of Away We Go

Melanie Laurant, Inglourious Basterds

Ben Foster and Samantha Morton, The Messenger

The cast of Precious

The cast of A Serious Man

Worst Performances:

Stephen Lang and Giovanni Ribisi, Avatar

Jae Head, The Blind Side (Not to pick on a little kid – I blame the director.)

Rachael Harris and Ken Jeong, The Hangover

Amy Adams, Julie and Julia

Best Trend:

Hipster-geek directors and children’s books. (Fantastic Mr. Fox, Where the Wild Things Are)

Worst Trend:

Packs of evil and/or creepy dogs. (Avatar, Coraline, Up) What’s with the dog-hating?

My Reactions to the Nominees

2010-02-02T19:15:00.000-08:00

Best Actor:

I got all five! Whoosh! Go Jeff Bridges.

Best Actress:

I got all five again! So now Meryl has a ridiculous 16 acting nominations, breaking the record held by herself the year before (which broke the record held by herself in 2006, which broke the record held by herself in 2002...)

Best Supporting Actor:

I got all five AGAIN! I'm on FIRE!

Best Supporting Actress:

Four out of five. Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart? Meh. She was good, I just didn't think she was outstanding. (I certainly would have preferred Melanie Laurant.) Still, I think she's a terrific actress and certainly deserves to have the title "Academy Award Nominee" before her name. (Besides, her kid brother's got one; the score must be evened! Now if only her husband could be nominated...)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Four out of five. A big wow for In the Loop. Maybe I'll have to see it.

Best Original Screenplay:

Four out of five; they picked The Messenger instead of 500 Days of Summer. Hey, as long as it wasn't The Hangover, I'm good. I noticed that the Academy included Thomas McCarthy on the nomination for Up, as he was credited on the story but not the screenplay. How strange that he was twice robbed in this category for his eloquent solo screenplays -- and The Station Agent and The Visitor -- and then he gets his first nod for a "treatment" credit.

Best Director:

All five again! Kick-ass! Thrilled for Kathryn Bigelow (though that was no surprise) and Lee Daniels (I was a little worried about that one.) Nice to see a Best Director lineup that isn't five white guys.

Best Picture:

Eight out of ten. I was afraid dipping down into sixth to tenth place would yield some looney results, but they ended up pretty straightforward. Here I missed on Invictus and The Messenger instead of A Serious Man and...The Blind Side? Really? Oh, man, now I'm really going to have to force myself to watch it.

Everything Else:

Let's see...I was primarily hoping for Fantastic Mr. Fox to be up for Animated Feature and for "The Weary Kind" to be up for Best Song, and both made it, so I'm pleased on both counts. Oh, and during the live announcement of the nominations, the title of one of the Foreign Language Film nominees made me guffaw aloud: The Milk of Sorrow. So I guess that's an actual movie and not a made-up foreign film within, say, a Ben Stiller movie?

Here's a bit of trivia: The last film to win Best Picture without nominations for writing OR acting was Grand Hotel in 1932. And the Oscars were exceptionally loony those first few years -- they were constantly changing the rules and still finding their voice as an award and as an institution -- so precedents from the 1930's almost don't count as precent at all. Not looking good, Avatar.

Finally, here's a fun activity you kids can do at home! (Ask your parents to help you with the scissors!) Here are the nominees in the top eight categories expressed in grid form; they get one block for each top-eight nomination. Print it out, and color in each movie as you see it. Try to get the whole thing filled in before Oscar night! (Even I am not going to try to fill the WHOLE thing in; I don't think I can force myself to see Invictus. It was hard enough getting to the end of Julie and Julia.)

82nd Annual Academy Award Nominees: My Predictions

2010-01-31T15:02:00.000-08:00

Blame The Dark Knight for ruining the Oscars. Last year, people were so upset their precious Batman movie wasn’t nominated for Best Picture, the Academy responded with a most illogical decision: Expand the Best Picture race to 10 nominees instead of 5, in an attempt to boost the telecast’s ratings with bigger box office hits among nominees. In short, they decided to dumb it down.

This is incredibly short-sighted and unimaginative; do they really think more people would have tuned in for an unceremonious Best Picture nod for The Dark Knight, one it was sure to lose? To merely hear the title mentioned before the drum-roll of the final envelope? No, DK fans tuned in for the far more compelling reason of seeing whether Heath Ledger would win, who would accept the award, and for their hearts to break one more time over his passing.

If the Academy truly wants to bring in a wider audience, they should improve the entertainment value of their telecast, not devalue the nominees. Add star power to the presenters, limit musical numbers to the Best Song nominees (and keep those moving briskly at that), and trade dull montages of movies we’ve presumably seen for new content. (Personally, I’ve always wanted to see more acting at the Oscars. How about live skits where actors re-enact scenes from the nominated films, to hilarious effect?)

The Oscars will never be the Superbowl. They are not the People’s Choice Awards. (Or the Kids’ Choice Awards. Or the MTV Movie Awards, etc.) The award for the movies making the most money is…the money. However often we may disagree with the Academy’s choices (choices I am never shy to criticize), there is at least the intention of honoring quality work that will stand the test of time, rather than soak up box office dollars and then immediately evaporate from our consciousness. (Yes, it was an outrage that Brokeback Mountain lost to Crash, but at least it didn’t lose to Wedding Crashers.)

The Academy has chosen to reach beyond its modest ratings and greedily court a demographic that isn’t going to watch their show anyway. And they will alienate their true fans in the process.

Alright, that’s my rant. Down to business.

(Note on abbreviations: NYFC, LAFC, NSFC, NBR, and CC are the major film critics' awards. GG is the Golden Globes. SAG, WGA, DGA, and PGA are the guild awards for actors, writers, directors, and producers. All actors, writers, and directors have their Oscar record to date expressed as their number of nominations, comma, number of wins.)

Best Actor

2010-01-31T15:00:00.000-08:00

Jeff Bridges	Crazy Heart	LAFC, CC, GG, SAG	4,0
George Clooney	Up in the Air	NYFC, NBR, CC, GG, SAG	2,1
Matt Damon	The Informant!	GG	1,0 [acting only]
Daniel Day-Lewis	Nine	GG	4,2
Robert Downey Jr.	Sherlock Holmes	*GG	2,0
Colin Firth	A Single Man	CC, GG, SAG	0,0
Morgan Freeman	Invictus	*NBR, CC, GG, SAG	4,1
Joseph Gordon-Levitt	500 Days of Summer	GG	0,0
Tobey Maguire	Brothers	GG	0,0
Viggo Mortensen	The Road	CC	1,0
Jeremy Renner	The Hurt Locker	*NSFC, CC, SAG	0,0
Michael Stuhlbarg	A Serious Man	GG	0,0

Tender Mercies, the 1983 film about an alcoholic country singer trying to put his life back together, finally won beloved character actor Robert Duvall the Oscar on his fourth attempt. Now re-write that sentence with Crazy Heart, 2009, Jeff Bridges, and “fifth” (Duvall just happens to have a small role in Crazy Heart, too.) Bridges has scored with his peers (the SAG), the critics, and whoever those Golden Globe people are, so I think the race is already over. His closest competitor is George Clooney, as a different kind of addict (a serial traveler) in need of redemption. An Oscar campaign doesn’t come more pedigreed than Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela directed by Clint Eastwood; that nomination is a done deal too. Colin Firth, as a professor in mourning, has picked up nods from all the major award circles, so voters will happily send their favorite Mr. Darcy (of both Pride and Prejudice and Bridget Jones’s Diary) to his first nomination.

Only the fifth spot is the least bit vulnerable, though almost every other award group has chosen Jeremy Renner, the bomb detonator of The Hurt Locker. If the Academy wants to shake things up, they could reach out to comeback king Robert Downey Jr. (bringing his debonair comedy to Sherlock Holmes), a shape-shifting Matt Damon (gaining weight DeNiro-style to play a schlubby whistle-blower), Oscar virgin Tobey Maguire (with career-best notices), or the Serious (and quietly unraveling) Michael Stuhlbarg.

Best Actress

2010-01-31T14:57:00.000-08:00

Emily Blunt	The Young Victoria	CC, GG	0,0
Sandra Bullock	The Blind Side	CC, GG, *SAG	0,0
Sandra Bullock	The Proposal	GG	0,0
Marion Cotillard	Nine	CC [supporting], GG	1,1
Helen Mirren	The Last Station	GG, SAG	3,1
Yolande Moreau	Seraphine	LAFC, NSFC	0,0
Carey Mulligan	An Education	*NBR, CC, GG, SAG	0,0
Julia Roberts	Duplicity	GG	3,1
Saoirse Ronan	The Lovely Bones	CC	1,0
Gabourey Sidibe	Precious	CC, GG, SAG	0,0
Meryl Streep	It’s Complicated	GG	15,2
Meryl Streep	Julie and Julia	NYFC, CC, *GG, SAG	15,2

The most unlikely rivals are competing for the title of all-out Queen of 2009 – one of our greatest actresses and one of our dullest – Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. In a time when studios are still leery of financing films starring women, these actresses had two box office hits apiece last year. They each picked up a Golden Globe nomination for one of them, each WON a Golden Globe for the other, and they even tied with each other at the Critics’ Choice Awards. Even though both their Oscar bid films got mediocre reviews, these two women own this category on the strength of the year they had, and everyone else is just along for the ride.

Two new-comers will make the top five: 24-year-old Carey Mulligan got sterling notices as a young woman navigating her future, and 26-year-old Gabourey Sidibe astonished as a young woman with seemingly no future. Finally, 2006 winner Helen Mirren returns in a lusty, tragicomic role as Leo Tolstoy’s wife, so that pretty much ends the race.

If anyone surprises, I bet it will be Emily Blunt as The Young Victoria, because Oscar is quite the sucker for British queens (Judi Dench was nominated for this same role in Mrs. Brown.) Disappointment for The Lovely Bones and Nine has sidelined Saoirse Ronan and Marion Cotillard (the latter teetering between the lead and supporting categories), and no one has even heard of surprise critics’ winner Yolande Moreau.

Best Supporting Actor

2010-01-31T14:55:00.000-08:00

Matt Damon	Invictus	CC, GG, SAG	1,0 [acting only]
Woody Harrelson	The Messenger	*NBR, CC, GG, SAG	1,0
Christian McKay	Me and Orson Welles	CC	0,0
Alfred Molina	An Education	CC	0,0
Christopher Plummer	The Last Station	GG, SAG	0,0
Paul Schneider	Bright Star	*NSFC	0,0
Stanley Tucci	The Lovely Bones	CC, GG, SAG	0,0
Christoph Waltz	Inglourious Basterds	NYFC, LAFC, NBR, CC, GG, SAG	0,0

It’s tough for an unknown performer to lead an Oscar race, but fans, critics, and insiders are so enthusiastic about Austrian Christoph Waltz’s wicked Nazi turn in Inglorious Basterds that he has pretty much already won the award before the nominations have even been announced.

Those who will be honored just to be nominated include Woody Harrelson, who delivers news of soldiers’ deaths to the next of kin in The Messenger, and Christopher Plummer’s embodiment of Leo Tolstoy’s final years, which will earn the 80-year-old his first Oscar nod. Stanley Tucci captured hearts with his quiet turn as Julia Child’s husband Paul, but his polar-opposite performance, as the sinister neighbor in The Lovely Bones, is the square focus of his awards push; though Bones was poorly received overall, support for his performance is still afloat. Matt Damon hasn’t been nominated since he picked up Best Screenplay for Good Will Hunting, but he’ll return to the race not for his starring role in Soderbergh’s The Informant!, but for his smaller role as a South African soccer player.

Like the Best Actress race, all five nominees in this category at the SAG awards were also chosen by the Golden Globes, so it seems these five actors are untouchable. Hoping for upset are the men from An Education, blowhard father Alfred Molina and charming boyfriend Peter Sarsgaard, steely soldier Anthony Mackie of The Hurt Locker, boy-toy (or, more accurately, middle-aged-man-toy) Alec Baldwin of It’s Complicated, and Christian McKay as the title character in Me and Orson Welles.